What if Scaling GPUs does not Bring us AGI?

Half a trillion dollars later, the AI industry is quietly admitting what some of us have suspected all along: scaling alone won’t get us to AGI. The “just add more GPUs” era is running out of steam.

For years, the AI industry bet big on the scaling hypothesis; the belief that simply throwing more data, compute, and money at models would eventually lead to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

But recent cracks are showing. Even with 15x more compute, Grok 3 still hallucinates. OpenAI has stalled on GPT-5. And investors like Marc Andreessen are signaling that models are hitting a ceiling.

While Microsoft is now exploring test-time compute (letting AI “think” longer on problems), it’s clear that brute force alone won’t solve AI’s biggest flaws.

The real winners won’t be those who double down on bigger models, but those who rethink AI from the ground up. What’s the next major breakthrough AI needs?

Read the full article on Fortune.

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